Champions League Outright Betting Preview
Next week Europe will see the beginning of the second leg of the UEFA Champions League 2022/23. The betting community is also excited about the return of the biggest soccer competition in the world, and the outright market is no exception.
The results of the first leg certainly impacted the odds, and the expectation around what teams will progress to the quarter-finals alongside team news like injuries and suspensions are part of the elements that explain the current betting odds of the international markets for the UEFA Champions League title of 2022/23.
Let’s have a look at the market odds and understand why they have stabilized like this as of March 4th, 2023, but before that, let’s learn a little about how professional football tipsters usually gamble to make a profit by betting on who will win tournaments like the UCL!
Professional Betting Tips for Outright Markets
The outright betting market can be compared to a stock market in some ways. You need to buy teams that are cheap in order to make a profit. The reason behind it is simple: betting odds are also called ‘prices’ because they fluctuate according to the perceptions of a market, just like stocks in the NYSE or goods in a supermarket, for example.
The odds for the Champions League Winner change a lot before and during the UCL season. That is correct. You can bet on the winner before the tournament begins, and during the final game too.
If a team has poor results in the group stage, in their domestic league, or too many injuries, for example, their odds will ‘grow’ or ‘rise’ as the betting professionals say.
But if they qualify with 18 points in the group stage and are leading their domestic league, their odds will become attractive, and when the bookies sell the same odds too often, that makes them drop significantly.
But market swings are actually powerful tools to make big profits. The key to doing that is to buy teams that have big odds, but that have good chances of going far in the tournament.
For example, Manchester City is the favourite team to win the UCL with odds ranging between 2.88 and 3.1, on average, but after they failed to win against RB Leipzig on the road, their odds increased a little, as they were expected to travel back to England with 3 points and not just one.
Some bookies freeze the outright betting market during games, but you can usually find them available even while matches unfold in the Round of 16.
Let’s suppose that Manchester City has bad injury news ahead of the game, and RB Leipzig scores early in the second game, that can make the odds for Man City to win ‘rise’ a little, while the odds of other contenders like FC Bayern or Real Madrid will decrease a bit, as a consequence of the market stabilization.
Current Odds for the UCL 2022/23 Winner
After Man City with odds around 3.0 on average in the European decimal system, we have FC Bayern with odds around 4.33 to 4.5 depending on the bookie you choose, followed by Real Madrid with odds ranging between 6.5 and 7.2, and available at most online gambling houses with odds of 7.0.
Underdogs tend to have big odds in any market and this one is no exception. Napoli can’t be considered underdogs as their odds are quite close to Madrid’s ones, but PSG and Chelsea already fall into that category with odds around 20 to 1.
Eintracht Frankfurt and Brugge are the big underdogs with odds in the house of 751 to 1 on average!